Overview of All Simulations

Introduction

This page summarizes all of the modelling. Other pages focus on the systems I find most interesting and on modelling done at the request of the ERRE Committee.

Proportionality

Alternative Vote-20181240-13%10%8%0%-4%13.5%13.5%47%98%2018
Alternative Vote-2014107017%-10%-1%0%-5%14.6%14.6%47%94%2014
Alternative Vote-2011107016%-5%-7%0%-3%12.6%12.6%47%96%2011
Alternative Vote-2007107026%-11%-6%0%-8%21.1%21.1%48%91%2007
Alternative Vote-2003103025%-14%-7%0%-3%21.3%21.3%50%96%2003
Alternative Vote-199910301%4%-3%0%-1%3.9%3.9%52%97%1999
Alternative Vote-19951300-3%12%-6%0%-0%9.8%9.8%50%97%1995
Alternative Vote-19901300-5%-14%26%0%-1%21.1%21.1%44%93%1990
Alternative Vote-1987130034%-22%-10%0%-0%29.5%29.5%49%98%1987
First-Past-The-Post-20181240-14%21%-1%0%-4%17.9%17.9%48%98%2018
First-Past-The-Post-2014107016%-5%-4%0%-5%12.4%12.4%47%94%2014
First-Past-The-Post-2011107012%-1%-7%0%-3%9.9%9.9%47%96%2011
First-Past-The-Post-2007107024%-7%-7%0%-8%19.4%19.4%48%91%2007
First-Past-The-Post-2003103023%-11%-8%0%-3%19.4%19.4%50%96%2003
First-Past-The-Post-19991030-6%12%-4%0%-1%10.0%10.0%52%97%1999
First-Past-The-Post-19951300-8%18%-7%0%-0%15.0%15.0%50%97%1995
First-Past-The-Post-19901300-5%-8%19%0%-1%15.4%15.4%44%93%1990
First-Past-The-Post-1987130026%-12%-11%0%-0%21.7%21.7%50%98%1987

Footnotes

  1. Number of Local MPs is the total number of MPs representing specific ridings. Those ridings may be either single-member ridings or multi-member.
  2. Number of Regional MPs is the total number of MPs that represent multiple ridings. This happens in systems with top-up seats such as MMP and RU-PR.
  3. Over-Representation by Party is the percentage of MPs in Parliament minus the percentage of the popular vote. For example, in 2015 under FPTP the Liberals received 54.4% of the seats but only 39.5% of the vote for an over-representation of (54.4 - 39.5) = 14.9%. Negative numbers mean the party was under-represented.
  4. Gallagher Index is a measure of disproportionality. It combines both over and under-representation for each party into a single number. Gallagherindicies less than 5 are excellent.
  5. Gallagher Index 2015 is the Gallagher Index for the simulated 2015 election.
  6. Gallagher Index Composite is the average of the Gallagher Indices for each province and territory, weighted by its number of seats. This corrects for a problem in calculating the Gallagher Index for the nation as a whole, which can can hide regional disproportionalities such as the significant over-representation of Conservatives in the Prairies offsetting the over-representation of Liberals in the Maritimes.
  7. % Voters with Preferred Local MP is the percentage of voters who have an MP representing their riding from the same party as their first choice candidate. Systems with multi-member ridings will do better under this measure.
  8. % Voters with Preferred Regional MP is the percentage of voters who have an MP representing their region from the same party as their first choice candidate. Systems with top-up seats will do better under this measure.
  9. Short System Name is a very consise abbreviation of the key parameters for this simulation.

Model Summary

Proportional electoral systems have many design parameters that can be tweaked. This table has two rows for each model. The bottom row applies to the riding; the top row applies to the region.

The first column of that table gives the name of the riding design (top) and the election algorithm used and the year of the election it's based on (bottom). The riding design specifies a particular mapping from old (e.g. 2015) ridings to new ridings, how the new ridings are gathered into regions, and finally how the regions are gathered by province. Riding designs are described in more detail at the bottom of this page and by following the riding design link.

Region# Tot Seats% SeatsAvg # Seats/RegionAvg #Reg/ProvAvg Adjust Seats / Region
RidingYear# Tot Seats% SeatsAvg # Seats/Riding% Single% MultipleComp. Gallagher
fptp00%0.01.0
AV1987130100%1.0100%0%29.5%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV1990130100%1.0100%0%21.1%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV1995130100%1.0100%0%9.8%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV1999103100%1.0100%0%3.9%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV2003103100%1.0100%0%21.3%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV2007107100%1.0100%0%21.1%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV2011107100%1.0100%0%12.6%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV2014107100%1.0100%0%14.6%
fptp00%0.01.0
AV2018124100%1.0100%0%13.5%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP1987130100%1.0100%0%21.7%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP1990130100%1.0100%0%15.4%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP1995130100%1.0100%0%15.0%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP1999103100%1.0100%0%10.0%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP2003103100%1.0100%0%19.4%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP2007107100%1.0100%0%19.4%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP2011107100%1.0100%0%9.9%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP2014107100%1.0100%0%12.4%
fptp00%0.01.0
MMP_FPTP2018124100%1.0100%0%17.9%

Riding Design Descriptions

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

fptp

FPTP for Ontario elections.

Election Strategy Descriptions

Election strategies are the specifics of how ballots are counted to determine which candidate fills a seat. Each strategy has three parts: how single-member ridings are handled, how multi-member ridings are handled, and finally how top-up or adjustment seats are handled.

AV

Single-Member Ridings:

During the election in each riding, votes were transferred in two steps. First, if a member of party X is eliminated and there are other members of party X still in the race, ALL of the votes are split equally between the remaining members of party X.

When the last member of a party is eliminated, the votes are transferred according to the following table.

Xfer from↓ to→BlocCCFCHPCORComConFCPFreeGrnIndLabProgLbtLibLibLabLibProgM-LNAPNDPNLPOthPPC
Bloc23142010
CCF
CHP
COR
Com
Con610121812
FCP
Free
Grn1581622
Ind
LabProg
Lbt
Lib2178462
LibLab
LibProg
M-L
NAP
NDP21218393
NLP
Oth
PPC30

This table is based on 2021 Ipsos polling reported here augmented with guesses about PPC transfers and Green transfers.

Ideally, we would have different tables for each region of the country (at least Quebec and the rest of Canada) as well as for each election year. But we don’t. The same table is currently used everywhere.

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/canadians-remain-open-to-changing-their-vote-as-debates-loom

Multi-Member Ridings:

An election strategy for where none are applicable. For example, for multi-member ridings in a FPTP simulation.

Top-up or Adjustments:

A placeholder election strategy for where no top-up strategy is applicable.

FPTP

Single-Member Ridings:

After collapsing all candidates running for the same party into one virtual candiate, choose the virtual candidate with the most votes.

Multi-Member Ridings:

An election strategy for where none are applicable. For example, for multi-member ridings in a FPTP simulation.

Top-up or Adjustments:

A placeholder election strategy for where no top-up strategy is applicable.