Summary of Riding Centric Rural-Urban PR (2015 Data)

Riding-Centric Rural Urban Proportional (need a better name!) is an exciting new electoral systems model that builds on the Rural-Urban model with ideas from Local Transferable Vote by Leonid A. Elbert. An intermediate step was developed by Antony Hodgson and Byron Weber Becker with the last tweaks by Byron Weber Becker.

This model offers the following advantages:

  • Excellent proportionality: It has a composite Gallagher score of 2.2. Out of the roughly 50 models currently on this web site, only 5 have a better cGallagher score -- and one of those is a variant of this one! Furthermore, I'm quite sure this score can be improved with some redistricting; see below.
  • An elected MP in every current riding: This model keeps our current, 2015, ridings intact (exactly the same size as now) and guarantees that an MP is elected in each one. This provides easy access to MPs for constituency service needs.
  • Multi-member ridings: Electing multiple MPs to serve a geographical area helps ensure that most voters have at least one MP who understands and can advocate for their policy positions. The need for candidates to attract 2nd and 3rd choice votes keeps political life more civil and encourages moderating positions. Multi-member ridings are also associated with electing more women and minority groups.
  • Easy redistricting: Many models require Elections Canada to redraw riding boundaries. This one does not. It just requires that existing ridings be grouped into multi-member ridings of 4 to 6 and that those multi-member ridings be grouped into regions of about 5. It also requires adding 42 new seats to the House of Commons -- an increase of about 12.5%. This would put Canada at about 92,500 voters per MP -- well above the average of Germany (127,700), New Zealand (37,000), UK (43,800), and France (71,400).
  • Few compensatory seats: This model has only 42 compensatory seats, or about 12%. MMP, in contrast, does not have a competative cGallagher index unless roughly 50% of the seats are compensatory and the regions are twice as large.

How it works:

  • Add 42 compensatory seats. The existing seat proportions among the provinces would be almost identical to the 2015 allocations if we made the quotient (used in legislation to describe how seats are redistributed) was cut from the current value of 111,166 to 98,000 and then add 1 more seat to the 1985 minimum redistribution numbers. See the report to the ERRE Committee under "Relaxing Constraints" for more details.
  • Group our current 338 ridings into multi-member ridings of about 4-5 seats each.
  • Put multi-member ridings into 3 regions in Ontario and 2 regions in Quebec. Everywhere else the region is the same as the province.
  • Conduct elections with a ballot similar to the following:
  • To be finished....

There is one down side to Riding-Centric Rural-Urban: the 42 additional compensatory seats violate the constraints stipulated in a motion passed by the ERRE Committee on October 20. The combination of the constraints in that motion are extremely restrictive. It's my hope that they were exploratory only and that the Committee will see fit to relax one of them to achieve a better result.


Number of Constituency MPs:338
Number of Top-Up MPs:42
Total MPs:380
Number of Single-Member Ridings:4
Number of Multi-Member Ridings:76
Total Ridings:80
Number of Top-up Regions:13
Single Member Seats:AV-Ekos
Multi Member Seats:Riding-CentricSTV
Compensatory Seats:Top-up

Summary Statistics

Statistics concerning all of the MPs elected -- both in local ridings and as top-ups. The "Proportional MPs" column takes into account provincial and territorial boundaries, as required by Canada's constitution.

PartyPopular Votes1Pct Votes2Elected MPs3Pct Elected MPs4Proportional MPs5Over Representation6
Lib6,942,93739.5%15741.3%151.81.8%
Con5,613,63331.9%11931.3%120.3-0.6%
NDP3,469,36819.7%7620.0%74.90.3%
Bloc821,1444.7%164.2%17.0-0.5%
Grn602,9333.4%123.2%12.9-0.3%
Oth141,4530.8%00.0%3.1-0.8%

MPs: 380Gallagher Index: 1.46Composite Gallagher Index: 2.19

1The number of votes each party received in the 2015 election.

2The percentage of the votes each party received.

3The number of candidates elected for each party.

4The percentage of MPs that this party was awarded. Ideally, this will match the percentage of the vote.

5The number of MPs this party would have if the results were perfectly proportional.

6The over (or under) representation of this party in Parliment. That is, the difference between the percentage of MPs and the percentage of the vote.

Vote Swing Analysis

What happens if public sentiment swings towards one party and away from another? This graph tries to answer that question. Using the riding-by-riding results from 2015, it systematically moves an increasing number of votes from one party to another.

If the lines representing the Conservative's votes tracks the line for the Conservative's MPs (and similar for the other parties), then the electoral system is proportional across a wide range of electoral scenarios.

On the other hand, if the lines for the votes earned and the MPs elected are farther apart -- as is the case for FPTP and AV -- then the electoral system is not proportional.

Examples:

  • At -20% on the bottom axis, 20% of the Liberal's vote in 2015 is given to the Conservatives to simulate an election where the Liberals earned 31% of the vote and the Conservatives earned almost 40%. The lighter red and blue lines show how many MPs would have been elected for each party by this voting system.
  • At +6% on the bottom axis, 6% of the Conservative's vote in 2015 is given to the Liberals to simulate an even more lop-sided win (41.4% to 30%). Again, the light red and blue lines show how many MPs would have been elected for each party by this voting system.

The black line, hopefully along the bottom of the graph, shows the Gallagher Index, an index of voting proportionality. Smaller numbers are better.

Voters shift from Conservative to Liberal

Average Gallagher Index: 2.6%

Voters shift from NDP to Liberal

Average Gallagher Index: 2.5%

Voters shift from Green to Liberal

Average Gallagher Index: 2.5%

Statistics for various subsets of ridings

Local-Ridings Only

Statistics concerning only the MPs elected in ridings, without the top-up MPs. This is useful for understanding how much the top-up MPs help create proportionality.

PartyPopular Votes1Pct Votes2Elected MPs3Pct Elected MPs4Proportional MPs5Over Representation6
Lib6,942,93739.5%14944.1%133.44.6%
Con5,613,63331.9%10731.7%107.9-0.3%
NDP3,469,36819.7%6820.1%66.70.4%
Bloc821,1444.7%133.8%15.8-0.8%
Grn602,9333.4%10.3%11.6-3.1%

MPs: 338Gallagher Index: 4.01

1The number of votes each party received in the 2015 election.

2The percentage of the votes each party received.

3The number of candidates elected for each party.

4The percentage of MPs that this party was awarded. Ideally, this will match the percentage of the vote.

5The number of MPs this party would have if the results were perfectly proportional.

6The over (or under) representation of this party in Parliment. That is, the difference between the percentage of MPs and the percentage of the vote.

Single-Member Riding Stats

Statistics on all of the single-member ridings as a group. In a FPTP simulation, this will be the same as the above. In an MMP simulation it will be similar to a FPTP because the top-up MPs are not included. A Hybrid model is where it's the most interesting. How out of whack are the single-member ridings?

PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsProportional MPsOver Representation
Lib34,55654.4%4100.0%2.245.6%
NDP14,67623.1%00.0%0.9-23.1%
Con13,08120.6%00.0%0.8-20.6%
Grn1,2522.0%00.0%0.1-2.0%

MPs: 4Gallagher Index: 39.01

Multi-Member Riding Stats

Statistics on all of the multi-member ridings as a group.

PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsProportional MPsOver Representation
Lib6,908,38139.4%14543.4%131.64.0%
Con5,600,55232.0%10732.0%106.70.1%
NDP3,454,69219.7%6820.4%65.80.6%
Bloc821,1444.7%133.9%15.6-0.8%
Grn601,6813.4%10.3%11.5-3.1%

MPs: 334Gallagher Index: 3.68

BC

Statistics on British Columbia.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib829,81635.1%1638.1%3.0%1736.2%1.1%
Con708,01029.9%1331.0%1.0%1429.8%-0.2%
NDP615,15626.0%1228.6%2.6%1225.5%-0.5%
Grn194,8478.2%12.4%-5.9%48.5%0.3%
Total Number of MPs:4247
Gallagher Index: 5.05 0.90

Prairie Provinces

Statistics on all of the "prairie" provinces: AB, MB, SK.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con1,642,56553.3%3658.1%4.8%3652.2%-1.1%
Lib873,37728.3%1829.0%0.7%2029.0%0.7%
NDP445,33414.4%812.9%-1.5%1217.4%2.9%
Grn79,2132.6%00.0%-2.6%11.4%-1.1%
Total Number of MPs:6269
Gallagher Index: 4.06 2.47

Eastern Provinces

Statistics on all of the "eastern" provinces: ON, QC, NB, NL, NS.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib5,163,06443.0%10948.0%5.0%11444.5%1.5%
Con3,234,79326.9%5725.1%-1.8%6826.6%-0.4%
NDP2,381,97519.8%4821.1%1.3%5119.9%0.1%
Bloc821,1446.8%135.7%-1.1%166.3%-0.6%
Grn322,3402.7%00.0%-2.7%72.7%0.0%
Total Number of MPs:227256
Gallagher Index: 4.40 1.21

Maritime Provinces

Statistics on all of the "Maritime" provinces: NB, NL, NS, PE.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib769,00058.7%2268.8%10.0%2363.9%5.2%
Con249,13619.0%618.8%-0.3%719.4%0.4%
NDP234,69917.9%412.5%-5.4%616.7%-1.3%
Grn46,2343.5%00.0%-3.5%00.0%-3.5%
Total Number of MPs:3236
Gallagher Index: 8.45 4.55

Ontario

Statistics on Ontario.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib2,929,39344.8%5847.9%3.2%6144.5%-0.3%
Con2,293,39335.1%4234.7%-0.3%4835.0%-0.0%
NDP1,085,91616.6%2117.4%0.8%2316.8%0.2%
Grn185,9922.8%00.0%-2.8%53.6%0.8%
Total Number of MPs:121137
Gallagher Index: 3.07 0.66

Quebec

Statistics on Quebec.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib1,515,67335.7%3241.0%5.3%3337.5%1.8%
NDP1,075,36625.4%2329.5%4.1%2326.1%0.8%
Bloc821,14419.4%1316.7%-2.7%1618.2%-1.2%
Con709,16416.7%1012.8%-3.9%1415.9%-0.8%
Grn95,3952.2%00.0%-2.2%22.3%0.0%
Total Number of MPs:7888
Gallagher Index: 6.03 1.72

Alberta

Statistics on Alberta.

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con1,150,10159.6%2367.6%8.1%2359.0%-0.6%
Lib473,41624.5%926.5%1.9%1025.6%1.1%
NDP224,80011.6%25.9%-5.8%512.8%1.2%
Grn48,7422.5%00.0%-2.5%12.6%0.0%
Total Number of MPs:3439
Gallagher Index: 7.40 1.42

Population vs. Riding Area

One concern in developing an electoral system for Canada is the diversity in riding geographical sizes. They currently range from as small as 6km2to almost 2.1 million km2. This graph gives the means to compare how different electoral systems deal with riding sizes. It answers the question "What percentage of Canada's population lives in ridings smaller than xkm2?".

This graph shows that with this model 50% of our population would live in ridings smaller than 5,714 km2 and 90% of our population live in ridings smaller than 104,163 km2.

X Scale: LogarithmicLinear

District Magnitudes

The district magnitude is the number of MPs that represent as specific area. With FPTP, all ridings are represented by a single MP, so the district magnitude is 1 for every riding. In other systems, the number of MPs may vary. These tables show the number of districts (riding or region) that have a given number of MPs representing it for this electoral model.

Riding-Level District Magnitudes

When we considers the local riding, how many MPs are there? How many ridings have that same number?

# of MPs# of Districts
14
24
316
425
515
611
73
82
Average: 4.2

Region-Level District Magnitudes

When we considers only the top-up MPs in a region, how many MPs are there? How many regions have that same number?

# of MPs# of Districts
03
16
56
61
Average: 2.6

Combined District Magnitude

When we consider the total number of MPs in a region (all of the local riding plus the top-up MPs), how many MPs are there? How many ridings have that same number?

In electoral models that don't have the concept of a region with top-up MPs (like STV, FPTP, and AV), the "region" is the province. Territories are always excluded from this table.

# of MPs# of Districts
13
51
81
111
121
152
391
411
431
461
472
481
Average:23.8

Methodology

Single-Member Ridings: AV-Ekos

During the election in each riding, votes were transferred in two steps. First, if a member of party X is eliminated and there are other members of party X still in the race, ALL of the votes are split equally between the remaining members of party X.

When the last member of a party is eliminated, the votes are transferred according to the following table.

Xfer from↓ to→BlocCHPComConGrnIndLbtLibM-LNDPOth
Bloc1961628
CHP
Com
Con81710
Grn1581622
Ind
Lbt
Lib3121045
M-L
NDP661353
Oth

This table is based on Ekos polling performed just before the 2015 election which asked for voters' second choice party. As Wilf Day has pointed out,

On Oct. 14 it had Liberals at 33.5%, Conservatives 32.6%, NDP 22.9%, Greens 5.6%, Bloc 3.4%. However, the E-day figures were Liberal 39.5%, Conservatives 31.9%, NDP 19.7%, Green 3.4%, and Bloc 4.7%. Obviously a lot of NDP and Green second-choices for Liberals had switched by E-day

However, it appears to be the best data we have.

Source: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_15_2015.pdf

Multi-Member Ridings: Riding-CentricSTV

An STV-like strategy that guarantees electing a candidate in each old riding that makes up a multi-member riding. It does so by prohibiting the elimination of the last candidate in the old riding.

The multi-member riding typically has at least one of its seats designated as an adjustment seat. The topup algorithm selects a candidate from an empty old riding (ie the adjustment seat).

Top-up Seats

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