Region Results for First-Past-The-Post-2021 (2021 Data)

This page presents an analysis of each region -- the number of seats each party received in the region, the number they should have received, and various percentages.

The statistics are presented twice for models that have top-up seats in the region -- once that excludes the top-up seats and once including them. This enables us to see the effect of including the top-up seats in the model.

Models that do not include top-up seats (FPTP, AV, STV) only present the statistics once.

The FPTP and AV electoral models don't even have the concept of a region. In those cases the "regions" are the provinces.

R_AB R_BC R_MB R_NB R_NL R_NS R_NT R_NU R_ON R_PE R_QC R_SK R_YT

Region: R_AB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con1,073,10355.3%3088.2%33.0%3088.2%33.0%
NDP370,34419.1%25.9%-13.2%25.9%-13.2%
Lib300,09915.5%25.9%-9.6%25.9%-9.6%
PPC142,6737.3%00.0%-7.3%00.0%-7.3%
Oth30,1831.6%00.0%-1.6%00.0%-1.6%
Total Number of MPs:3434
Gallagher Index:26.5526.55

Topup Seats: (0)

    Constituent 2015 Ridings

    Banff-Airdrie, Battle River-Crowfoot, Bow river, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Forest Lawn, Calgary Heritage, Calgary Midnapore, Calgary Nose Hill, Calgary Rocky Ridge, Calgary Shepard, Calgary Signal Hill, Calgary Skyview, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Mill Woods, Edmonton Riverbend, Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton West, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, Foothills, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Lakeland, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, Peace River-Westlock, Red Deer-Lacombe, Red Deer-Mountain View, Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, St. Albert-Edmonton, Sturgeon River-Parkland, Yellowhead

    Region: R_BC

    Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
    PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
    Con741,04333.2%1331.0%-2.3%1331.0%-2.3%
    NDP650,60629.2%1331.0%1.8%1331.0%1.8%
    Lib602,24827.0%1535.7%8.7%1535.7%8.7%
    Grn117,9515.3%12.4%-2.9%12.4%-2.9%
    PPC109,6764.9%00.0%-4.9%00.0%-4.9%
    Total Number of MPs:4242
    Gallagher Index: 7.65 7.65

    Topup Seats: (0)

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Abbotsford, Burnaby North-Seymour, Burnaby South, Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Chilliwack-Hope, Cloverdale-Langley City, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Courtenay-Alberni, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Delta, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kootenay-Columbia, Langley-Aldergrove, Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, New Westminster-Burnaby, North Island-Powell River, North Okanagan-Shuswap, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies, Richmond Centre, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan-West Kootenay, South Surrey-White Rock, Steveston-Richmond East, Surrey Centre, Surrey-Newton, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, Victoria, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

      Region: R_MB

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Con224,16839.2%750.0%10.8%750.0%10.8%
      Lib159,49827.9%428.6%0.7%428.6%0.7%
      NDP131,83023.0%321.4%-1.6%321.4%-1.6%
      PPC43,6037.6%00.0%-7.6%00.0%-7.6%
      Grn9,5181.7%00.0%-1.7%00.0%-1.7%
      Total Number of MPs:1414
      Gallagher Index: 9.52 9.52

      Topup Seats: (0)

        Constituent 2015 Ridings

        Brandon-Souris, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa, Elmwood-Transcona, Kildonan-St. Paul, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre

        Region: R_NB

        Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
        PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
        Lib168,81742.4%660.0%17.6%660.0%17.6%
        Con133,79433.6%440.0%6.4%440.0%6.4%
        NDP47,56411.9%00.0%-11.9%00.0%-11.9%
        PPC24,3706.1%00.0%-6.1%00.0%-6.1%
        Grn20,5055.1%00.0%-5.1%00.0%-5.1%
        Total Number of MPs:1010
        Gallagher Index:16.7116.71

        Topup Seats: (0)

          Constituent 2015 Ridings

          Acadie-Bathurst, Beauséjour, Fredericton, Fundy Royal, Madawaska-Restigouche, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, New Brunswick Southwest, Saint John-Rothesay, Tobique-Mactaquac

          Region: R_NL

          Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
          PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
          Lib103,06247.7%685.7%38.0%685.7%38.0%
          Con70,21332.5%114.3%-18.2%114.3%-18.2%
          NDP37,55017.4%00.0%-17.4%00.0%-17.4%
          PPC5,1422.4%00.0%-2.4%00.0%-2.4%
          Total Number of MPs:77
          Gallagher Index:32.2832.28

          Topup Seats: (0)

            Constituent 2015 Ridings

            Avalon, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Labrador, Long Range Mountains, St. John's East, St. John's South-Mount Pearl

            Region: R_NS

            Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
            PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
            Lib206,81242.3%872.7%30.4%872.7%30.4%
            Con143,76429.4%327.3%-2.2%327.3%-2.2%
            NDP108,09222.1%00.0%-22.1%00.0%-22.1%
            PPC19,4814.0%00.0%-4.0%00.0%-4.0%
            Grn9,1891.9%00.0%-1.9%00.0%-1.9%
            Total Number of MPs:1111
            Gallagher Index:26.8126.81

            Topup Seats: (0)

              Constituent 2015 Ridings

              Cape Breton-Canso, Central Nova, Cumberland-Colchester, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, South Shore-St. Margarets, Sydney-Victoria, West Nova

              Region: R_NT

              Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
              PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
              Lib5,38738.1%1100.0%61.9%1100.0%61.9%
              NDP4,55832.3%00.0%-32.3%00.0%-32.3%
              Con2,03114.4%00.0%-14.4%00.0%-14.4%
              Ind1,79112.7%00.0%-12.7%00.0%-12.7%
              Grn3552.5%00.0%-2.5%00.0%-2.5%
              Total Number of MPs:11
              Gallagher Index:51.1951.19

              Topup Seats: (0)

                Constituent 2015 Ridings

                Northwest Territories

                Region: R_NU

                Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
                PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
                NDP3,48347.9%1100.0%52.1%1100.0%52.1%
                Lib2,58835.6%00.0%-35.6%00.0%-35.6%
                Con1,20516.6%00.0%-16.6%00.0%-16.6%
                Total Number of MPs:11
                Gallagher Index:46.1446.14

                Topup Seats: (0)

                  Constituent 2015 Ridings

                  Nunavut

                  Region: R_ON

                  Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
                  PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
                  Lib2,532,44639.3%7864.5%25.2%7864.5%25.2%
                  Con2,249,48534.9%3730.6%-4.3%3730.6%-4.3%
                  NDP1,151,78817.9%54.1%-13.7%54.1%-13.7%
                  PPC352,0765.5%00.0%-5.5%00.0%-5.5%
                  Grn143,2182.2%10.8%-1.4%10.8%-1.4%
                  Total Number of MPs:121121
                  Gallagher Index:20.9020.90

                  Topup Seats: (0)

                    Constituent 2015 Ridings

                    Ajax, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bay of Quinte, Beaches-East York, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Brantford-Brant, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Burlington, Cambridge, Carleton, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Eglinton-Lawrence, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Humber River-Black Creek, Huron-Bruce, Kanata-Carleton, Kenora, King-Vaughan, Kingston and the Islands, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Kitchener-Conestoga, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, London North Centre, London West, London-Fanshawe, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Nepean, Newmarket-Aurora, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, Nickel Belt, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Orléans, Oshawa, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Vanier, Oxford, Parkdale-High Park, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Perth-Wellington, Peterborough-Kawartha, Pickering-Uxbridge, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Richmond Hill, Sarnia-Lambton, Sault Ste. Marie, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Spadina-Fort York, St. Catharines, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Sudbury, Thornhill, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timmins-James Bay, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto-St. Paul's, University-Rosedale, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Waterloo, Wellington-Halton Hills, Whitby, Willowdale, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, York Centre, York South-Weston, York-Simcoe

                    Region: R_PE

                    Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
                    PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
                    Lib38,95646.2%4100.0%53.8%4100.0%53.8%
                    Con26,67331.7%00.0%-31.7%00.0%-31.7%
                    Grn8,0489.6%00.0%-9.6%00.0%-9.6%
                    NDP7,7129.2%00.0%-9.2%00.0%-9.2%
                    PPC2,7383.2%00.0%-3.2%00.0%-3.2%
                    Total Number of MPs:44
                    Gallagher Index:45.1645.16

                    Topup Seats: (0)

                      Constituent 2015 Ridings

                      Cardigan, Charlottetown, Egmont, Malpeque

                      Region: R_QC

                      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
                      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
                      Lib1,361,29133.6%3443.6%10.0%3443.6%10.0%
                      Bloc1,301,75832.1%3342.3%10.2%3342.3%10.2%
                      Con755,54818.6%1012.8%-5.8%1012.8%-5.8%
                      NDP395,9599.8%11.3%-8.5%11.3%-8.5%
                      PPC109,0462.7%00.0%-2.7%00.0%-2.7%
                      Grn61,7301.5%00.0%-1.5%00.0%-1.5%
                      Oth59,3411.5%00.0%-1.5%00.0%-1.5%
                      Total Number of MPs:7878
                      Gallagher Index:12.6712.67

                      Topup Seats: (0)

                        Constituent 2015 Ridings

                        Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Alfred-Pellan, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, Beauce, Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix, Beauport-Limoilou, Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Beloeil-Chambly, Berthier-Maskinongé, Bourassa, Brome-Missisquoi, Brossard-Saint-Lambert, Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Châteauguay-Lacolle, Compton-Stanstead, Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, Drummond, Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Gatineau, Hochelaga, Honoré-Mercier, Hull-Aylmer, Joliette, Jonquière, La Pointe-de-l'Île, La Prairie, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Lac-Saint-Jean, Lac-Saint-Louis, Laurentides-Labelle, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Laval-Les Îles, Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Lévis-Lotbinière, Manicouagan, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Mirabel, Montarville, Montcalm, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Mount Royal, Mégantic-L'Érable, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Outremont, Papineau, Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Pontiac, Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Québec, Repentigny, Richmond-Arthabaska, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint-Jean, Saint-Laurent, Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Salaberry-Suroît, Shefford, Sherbrooke, Terrebonne, Thérèse-De Blainville, Trois-Rivières, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Sœurs, Vimy

                        Region: R_SK

                        Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
                        PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
                        Con304,39259.0%14100.0%41.0%14100.0%41.0%
                        NDP108,61121.1%00.0%-21.1%00.0%-21.1%
                        Lib54,68510.6%00.0%-10.6%00.0%-10.6%
                        PPC34,1646.6%00.0%-6.6%00.0%-6.6%
                        Oth7,2501.4%00.0%-1.4%00.0%-1.4%
                        Grn5,7341.1%00.0%-1.1%00.0%-1.1%
                        Total Number of MPs:1414
                        Gallagher Index:33.7733.77

                        Topup Seats: (0)

                          Constituent 2015 Ridings

                          Battlefords-Lloydminster, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, Prince Albert, Regina-Lewvan, Regina-Qu'Appelle, Regina-Wascana, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville

                          Region: R_YT

                          Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
                          PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
                          Lib6,47133.2%1100.0%66.8%1100.0%66.8%
                          Con5,09626.2%00.0%-26.2%00.0%-26.2%
                          NDP4,35422.4%00.0%-22.4%00.0%-22.4%
                          Ind2,63913.5%00.0%-13.5%00.0%-13.5%
                          Grn9194.7%00.0%-4.7%00.0%-4.7%
                          Total Number of MPs:11
                          Gallagher Index:54.0854.08

                          Topup Seats: (0)

                            Constituent 2015 Ridings

                            Yukon