Region Results for Rural-Urban PR (More Singles, 389 Seats) (2015 Data)

This page presents an analysis of each region -- the number of seats each party received in the region, the number they should have received, and various percentages.

The statistics are presented twice for models that have top-up seats in the region -- once that excludes the top-up seats and once including them. This enables us to see the effect of including the top-up seats in the model.

Models that do not include top-up seats (FPTP, AV, STV) only present the statistics once.

The FPTP and AV electoral models don't even have the concept of a region. In those cases the "regions" are the provinces.

R_AB.North R_AB.South R_BC.IntNorthIsland R_BC.LowerMain R_MB R_NB R_NL R_NS R_NT R_NU R_ON.Eastern R_ON.GTA R_ON.Northern R_ON.SouthCentral R_ON.Western R_PEI R_QC.Eastern R_QC.MonCentral R_QC.MonWestL R_SK R_YT

Region: R_AB.North

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con537,76757.3%1270.6%13.3%1260.0%2.7%
Lib211,09022.5%317.6%-4.8%525.0%2.5%
NDP143,75515.3%211.8%-3.5%315.0%-0.3%
Grn22,5882.4%00.0%-2.4%00.0%-2.4%
Ind14,7011.6%00.0%-1.6%00.0%-1.6%
Total Number of MPs:1720
Gallagher Index:10.53 3.35

Topup Seats: (3)

  1. Lib
  2. NDP
  3. Lib

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Battle River-Crowfoot, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Mill Woods, Edmonton Riverbend, Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton West, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Lakeland, Peace River-Westlock, Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, St. Albert-Edmonton, Sturgeon River-Parkland, Yellowhead

Region: R_AB.South

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con612,33461.7%1376.5%14.7%1365.0%3.3%
Lib262,32626.4%423.5%-2.9%525.0%-1.4%
NDP81,0458.2%00.0%-8.2%210.0%1.8%
Grn26,1542.6%00.0%-2.6%00.0%-2.6%
Total Number of MPs:1720
Gallagher Index:12.24 3.41

Topup Seats: (3)

  1. NDP
  2. Lib
  3. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Banff-Airdrie, Bow river, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Forest Lawn, Calgary Heritage, Calgary Midnapore, Calgary Nose Hill, Calgary Rocky Ridge, Calgary Shepard, Calgary Signal Hill, Calgary Skyview, Foothills, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, Red Deer-Lacombe, Red Deer-Mountain View

Region: R_BC.IntNorthIsland

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
NDP310,33630.5%637.5%7.0%633.3%2.8%
Con303,01729.8%637.5%7.7%633.3%3.5%
Lib264,53226.0%318.8%-7.3%422.2%-3.8%
Grn133,56513.1%16.3%-6.9%211.1%-2.0%
Total Number of MPs:1618
Gallagher Index:10.20 4.41

Topup Seats: (2)

  1. Lib
  2. Grn

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Courtenay-Alberni, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kootenay-Columbia, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, North Island-Powell River, North Okanagan-Shuswap, Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan-West Kootenay, Victoria

Region: R_BC.LowerMain

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib565,28441.9%934.6%-7.3%1240.0%-1.9%
Con404,99330.0%934.6%4.6%930.0%-0.0%
NDP304,82022.6%830.8%8.2%826.7%4.1%
Grn61,2824.5%00.0%-4.5%13.3%-1.2%
Total Number of MPs:2630
Gallagher Index: 9.00 3.31

Topup Seats: (4)

  1. Lib
  2. Lib
  3. Lib
  4. Grn

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Abbotsford, Burnaby North-Seymour, Burnaby South, Chilliwack-Hope, Cloverdale-Langley City, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Langley-Aldergrove, Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, New Westminster-Burnaby, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Richmond Centre, South Surrey-White Rock, Steveston-Richmond East, Surrey Centre, Surrey-Newton, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Region: R_MB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib268,28044.7%428.6%-16.1%637.5%-7.2%
Con224,52737.4%857.1%19.8%850.0%12.6%
NDP81,96013.6%214.3%0.6%212.5%-1.1%
Grn18,9443.2%00.0%-3.2%00.0%-3.2%
Total Number of MPs:1416
Gallagher Index:18.1710.54

Topup Seats: (2)

  1. Lib
  2. Lib

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Brandon-Souris, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa, Elmwood-Transcona, Kildonan-St. Paul, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre

Region: R_NB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib227,76451.6%770.0%18.4%763.6%12.1%
Con112,07025.4%220.0%-5.4%218.2%-7.2%
NDP81,10518.4%110.0%-8.4%218.2%-0.2%
Grn20,5514.7%00.0%-4.7%00.0%-4.7%
Total Number of MPs:1011
Gallagher Index:15.1710.47

Topup Seats: (1)

  1. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Acadie-Bathurst, Beauséjour, Fredericton, Fundy Royal, Madawaska-Restigouche, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, New Brunswick Southwest, Saint John-Rothesay, Tobique-Mactaquac

Region: R_NL

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib165,41864.5%685.7%21.2%675.0%10.5%
NDP54,12021.1%114.3%-6.8%112.5%-8.6%
Con26,46910.3%00.0%-10.3%112.5%2.2%
Ind7,5012.9%00.0%-2.9%00.0%-2.9%
Grn2,7721.1%00.0%-1.1%00.0%-1.1%
Total Number of MPs:78
Gallagher Index:17.51 9.97

Topup Seats: (1)

  1. Con

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Avalon, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Labrador, Long Range Mountains, St. John's East, St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Region: R_NS

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib324,81662.0%981.8%19.8%969.2%7.2%
Con93,69717.9%19.1%-8.8%215.4%-2.5%
NDP85,46816.3%19.1%-7.2%215.4%-0.9%
Grn17,6303.4%00.0%-3.4%00.0%-3.4%
Total Number of MPs:1113
Gallagher Index:16.32 5.93

Topup Seats: (2)

  1. Con
  2. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cape Breton-Canso, Central Nova, Cumberland-Colchester, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, South Shore-St. Margarets, Sydney-Victoria, West Nova

Region: R_NT

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib9,17248.3%1100.0%51.7%1100.0%51.7%
NDP5,78330.5%00.0%-30.5%00.0%-30.5%
Con3,48118.3%00.0%-18.3%00.0%-18.3%
Grn5372.8%00.0%-2.8%00.0%-2.8%
Total Number of MPs:11
Gallagher Index:44.4044.40

Topup Seats: (0)

    Constituent 2015 Ridings

    Northwest Territories

    Region: R_NU

    Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
    PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
    Lib5,61947.1%1100.0%52.9%1100.0%52.9%
    NDP3,17126.6%00.0%-26.6%00.0%-26.6%
    Con2,95624.8%00.0%-24.8%00.0%-24.8%
    Grn1821.5%00.0%-1.5%00.0%-1.5%
    Total Number of MPs:11
    Gallagher Index:45.3945.39

    Topup Seats: (0)

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Nunavut

      Region: R_ON.Eastern

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib559,82647.2%1052.6%5.4%1045.5%-1.8%
      Con420,10635.4%842.1%6.7%836.4%0.9%
      NDP159,95213.5%15.3%-8.2%313.6%0.1%
      Grn33,5912.8%00.0%-2.8%14.5%1.7%
      Total Number of MPs:1922
      Gallagher Index: 8.65 1.92

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. NDP
      2. NDP
      3. Grn

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Bay of Quinte, Carleton, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Kanata-Carleton, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Nepean, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Orléans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Vanier, Peterborough-Kawartha, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

      Region: R_ON.GTA

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib1,390,91149.2%2749.1%-0.1%3250.0%0.8%
      Con965,22734.1%1934.5%0.4%2234.4%0.3%
      NDP394,44813.9%916.4%2.4%914.1%0.1%
      Grn62,2372.2%00.0%-2.2%11.6%-0.6%
      Total Number of MPs:5564
      Gallagher Index: 2.34 0.80

      Topup Seats: (9)

      1. Lib
      2. Lib
      3. Con
      4. Lib
      5. Con
      6. Lib
      7. Grn
      8. Con
      9. Lib

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Ajax, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Beaches-East York, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Humber River-Black Creek, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Oshawa, Parkdale-High Park, Pickering-Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Spadina-Fort York, Thornhill, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto-St. Paul's, University-Rosedale, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Whitby, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-Weston, York-Simcoe

      Region: R_ON.Northern

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib166,05542.9%555.6%12.7%550.0%7.1%
      NDP115,56029.8%444.4%14.6%440.0%10.2%
      Con89,46123.1%00.0%-23.1%110.0%-13.1%
      Grn15,4534.0%00.0%-4.0%00.0%-4.0%
      Total Number of MPs:910
      Gallagher Index:21.4913.07

      Topup Seats: (1)

      1. Con

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Kenora, Nickel Belt, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timmins-James Bay

      Region: R_ON.SouthCentral

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib433,59040.5%736.8%-3.6%940.9%0.4%
      Con390,78736.5%947.4%10.9%940.9%4.4%
      NDP197,82818.5%315.8%-2.7%418.2%-0.3%
      Grn38,5323.6%00.0%-3.6%00.0%-3.6%
      Total Number of MPs:1922
      Gallagher Index: 8.72 4.07

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. Lib
      2. NDP
      3. Lib

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Brantford-Brant, Burlington, Cambridge, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Kitchener-Conestoga, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, St. Catharines, Waterloo, Wellington-Halton Hills

      Region: R_ON.Western

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Con427,81240.0%1157.9%17.9%1150.0%10.0%
      Lib379,01135.5%526.3%-9.2%731.8%-3.7%
      NDP218,12820.4%315.8%-4.6%418.2%-2.2%
      Grn36,1793.4%00.0%-3.4%00.0%-3.4%
      Total Number of MPs:1922
      Gallagher Index:14.76 8.04

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. Lib
      2. Lib
      3. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London North Centre, London West, London-Fanshawe, Oxford, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Perth-Wellington, Sarnia-Lambton, Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh

      Region: R_PEI

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib51,00258.3%250.0%-8.3%360.0%1.7%
      Con16,90019.3%125.0%5.7%120.0%0.7%
      NDP14,00616.0%125.0%9.0%120.0%4.0%
      Grn5,2816.0%00.0%-6.0%00.0%-6.0%
      Total Number of MPs:45
      Gallagher Index:10.45 5.28

      Topup Seats: (1)

      1. Lib

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Cardigan, Charlottetown, Egmont, Malpeque

      Region: R_QC.Eastern

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib394,94427.4%933.3%5.9%929.0%1.6%
      Con391,10127.2%933.3%6.2%929.0%1.9%
      NDP353,20224.5%622.2%-2.3%722.6%-2.0%
      Bloc262,93618.3%311.1%-7.2%619.4%1.1%
      Grn27,8631.9%00.0%-1.9%00.0%-1.9%
      Total Number of MPs:2731
      Gallagher Index: 8.16 2.74

      Topup Seats: (4)

      1. Bloc
      2. Bloc
      3. NDP
      4. Bloc

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, Beauce, Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix, Beauport-Limoilou, Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Berthier-Maskinongé, Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Compton-Stanstead, Drummond, Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jonquière, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Lévis-Lotbinière, Manicouagan, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Mégantic-L'Érable, Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Québec, Richmond-Arthabaska, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques, Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières

      Region: R_QC.MonCentral

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib654,12437.1%1443.8%6.7%1438.9%1.8%
      NDP467,15726.5%928.1%1.6%925.0%-1.5%
      Bloc401,41222.8%721.9%-0.9%822.2%-0.5%
      Con183,05610.4%26.3%-4.1%411.1%0.7%
      Grn44,8452.5%00.0%-2.5%12.8%0.2%
      Total Number of MPs:3236
      Gallagher Index: 5.97 1.80

      Topup Seats: (4)

      1. Con
      2. Bloc
      3. Grn
      4. Con

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Alfred-Pellan, Beloeil-Chambly, Bourassa, Brome-Missisquoi, Brossard-Saint-Lambert, Châteauguay-Lacolle, Hochelaga, Honoré-Mercier, Joliette, La Pointe-de-l'Île, La Prairie, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Laval-Les Îles, Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Montarville, Montcalm, Outremont, Papineau, Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, Repentigny, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint-Jean, Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, Salaberry-Suroît, Shefford, Terrebonne, Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Sœurs, Vimy

      Region: R_QC.MonWestL

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib466,60544.9%947.4%2.5%1045.5%0.6%
      NDP255,00724.5%526.3%1.8%522.7%-1.8%
      Bloc156,79615.1%210.5%-4.6%313.6%-1.4%
      Con135,00713.0%315.8%2.8%313.6%0.6%
      Grn22,6872.2%00.0%-2.2%14.5%2.4%
      Total Number of MPs:1922
      Gallagher Index: 4.62 2.42

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. Bloc
      2. Lib
      3. Grn

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Lac-Saint-Louis, Laurentides-Labelle, Mirabel, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Pontiac, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord, Saint-Laurent, Thérèse-De Blainville, Vaudreuil-Soulanges

      Region: R_SK

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Con267,93748.5%964.3%15.7%956.3%7.7%
      NDP138,57425.1%321.4%-3.7%425.0%-0.1%
      Lib131,68123.9%214.3%-9.6%318.8%-5.1%
      Grn11,5272.1%00.0%-2.1%00.0%-2.1%
      Total Number of MPs:1416
      Gallagher Index:13.37 6.70

      Topup Seats: (2)

      1. Lib
      2. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Battlefords-Lloydminster, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, Prince Albert, Regina-Lewvan, Regina-Qu'Appelle, Regina-Wascana, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville

      Region: R_YT

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib10,88753.7%1100.0%46.3%1100.0%46.3%
      Con4,92824.3%00.0%-24.3%00.0%-24.3%
      NDP3,94319.4%00.0%-19.4%00.0%-19.4%
      Grn5332.6%00.0%-2.6%00.0%-2.6%
      Total Number of MPs:11
      Gallagher Index:39.5139.51

      Topup Seats: (0)

        Constituent 2015 Ridings

        Yukon