Region Results for Rural-Urban PR (More Singles, 338 Seats) (2015 Data)

This page presents an analysis of each region -- the number of seats each party received in the region, the number they should have received, and various percentages.

The statistics are presented twice for models that have top-up seats in the region -- once that excludes the top-up seats and once including them. This enables us to see the effect of including the top-up seats in the model.

Models that do not include top-up seats (FPTP, AV, STV) only present the statistics once.

The FPTP and AV electoral models don't even have the concept of a region. In those cases the "regions" are the provinces.

R_AB.North R_AB.South R_BC.IntNorthIsland R_BC.LowerMain R_MB R_NB R_NL R_NS R_NT R_NU R_ON.Eastern R_ON.GTA R_ON.Northern R_ON.SouthCentral R_ON.Western R_PEI R_QC.Eastern R_QC.MonCentral R_QC.MonWestL R_SK R_YT

Region: R_AB.North

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con479,58955.4%969.2%13.8%956.3%0.8%
Lib203,49423.5%215.4%-8.1%425.0%1.5%
NDP138,58016.0%215.4%-0.6%318.8%2.7%
Grn20,2892.3%00.0%-2.3%00.0%-2.3%
Ind14,7011.7%00.0%-1.7%00.0%-1.7%
Total Number of MPs:1316
Gallagher Index:11.53 3.10

Topup Seats: (3)

  1. Lib
  2. Lib
  3. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Mill Woods, Edmonton Riverbend, Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton West, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Lakeland, Peace River-Westlock, Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, St. Albert-Edmonton, Sturgeon River-Parkland, Yellowhead

Region: R_AB.South

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con670,51262.9%1280.0%17.1%1266.7%3.7%
Lib269,92125.3%320.0%-5.3%527.8%2.4%
NDP86,2198.1%00.0%-8.1%15.6%-2.5%
Grn28,4522.7%00.0%-2.7%00.0%-2.7%
Total Number of MPs:1518
Gallagher Index:14.01 4.10

Topup Seats: (3)

  1. Lib
  2. NDP
  3. Lib

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Banff-Airdrie, Battle River-Crowfoot, Bow river, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Forest Lawn, Calgary Heritage, Calgary Midnapore, Calgary Nose Hill, Calgary Rocky Ridge, Calgary Shepard, Calgary Signal Hill, Calgary Skyview, Foothills, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, Red Deer-Lacombe, Red Deer-Mountain View, Yellowhead

Region: R_BC.IntNorthIsland

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
NDP310,33630.5%642.9%12.3%637.5%7.0%
Con303,01729.8%321.4%-8.4%425.0%-4.8%
Lib264,53226.0%428.6%2.6%425.0%-1.0%
Grn133,56513.1%17.1%-6.0%212.5%-0.6%
Total Number of MPs:1416
Gallagher Index:11.51 6.05

Topup Seats: (2)

  1. Con
  2. Grn

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Courtenay-Alberni, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kootenay-Columbia, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, North Island-Powell River, North Okanagan-Shuswap, Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan-West Kootenay, Victoria

Region: R_BC.LowerMain

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib565,28441.9%940.9%-1.0%1142.3%0.4%
Con404,99330.0%731.8%1.8%830.8%0.7%
NDP304,82022.6%627.3%4.7%623.1%0.5%
Grn61,2824.5%00.0%-4.5%13.8%-0.7%
Total Number of MPs:2226
Gallagher Index: 4.84 0.89

Topup Seats: (4)

  1. Lib
  2. Grn
  3. Lib
  4. Con

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Abbotsford, Burnaby North-Seymour, Burnaby South, Chilliwack-Hope, Cloverdale-Langley City, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Langley-Aldergrove, Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, New Westminster-Burnaby, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Richmond Centre, South Surrey-White Rock, Steveston-Richmond East, Surrey Centre, Surrey-Newton, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Region: R_MB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib268,28044.7%541.7%-3.0%642.9%-1.8%
Con224,52737.4%650.0%12.6%642.9%5.5%
NDP81,96013.6%18.3%-5.3%214.3%0.6%
Grn18,9443.2%00.0%-3.2%00.0%-3.2%
Total Number of MPs:1214
Gallagher Index:10.17 4.69

Topup Seats: (2)

  1. Lib
  2. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Brandon-Souris, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa, Elmwood-Transcona, Kildonan-St. Paul, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre

Region: R_NB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib227,76451.6%666.7%15.1%660.0%8.4%
Con112,07025.4%222.2%-3.1%220.0%-5.4%
NDP81,10518.4%111.1%-7.2%220.0%1.6%
Grn20,5514.7%00.0%-4.7%00.0%-4.7%
Total Number of MPs:910
Gallagher Index:12.50 7.89

Topup Seats: (1)

  1. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Acadie-Bathurst, Beauséjour, Fredericton, Fundy Royal, Madawaska-Restigouche, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, New Brunswick Southwest, Saint John-Rothesay, Tobique-Mactaquac

Region: R_NL

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib165,41864.5%583.3%18.8%571.4%6.9%
NDP54,12021.1%116.7%-4.4%114.3%-6.8%
Con26,46910.3%00.0%-10.3%114.3%4.0%
Ind7,5012.9%00.0%-2.9%00.0%-2.9%
Grn2,7721.1%00.0%-1.1%00.0%-1.1%
Total Number of MPs:67
Gallagher Index:15.67 7.75

Topup Seats: (1)

  1. Con

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Avalon, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Labrador, Long Range Mountains, St. John's East, St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Region: R_NS

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib324,81662.0%777.8%15.7%763.6%1.6%
Con93,69717.9%111.1%-6.8%218.2%0.3%
NDP85,46816.3%111.1%-5.2%218.2%1.9%
Grn17,6303.4%00.0%-3.4%00.0%-3.4%
Total Number of MPs:911
Gallagher Index:12.89 2.96

Topup Seats: (2)

  1. Con
  2. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cape Breton-Canso, Central Nova, Cumberland-Colchester, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, South Shore-St. Margarets, Sydney-Victoria, West Nova

Region: R_NT

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib9,17248.3%1100.0%51.7%1100.0%51.7%
NDP5,78330.5%00.0%-30.5%00.0%-30.5%
Con3,48118.3%00.0%-18.3%00.0%-18.3%
Grn5372.8%00.0%-2.8%00.0%-2.8%
Total Number of MPs:11
Gallagher Index:44.4044.40

Topup Seats: (0)

    Constituent 2015 Ridings

    Northwest Territories

    Region: R_NU

    Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
    PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
    Lib5,61947.1%1100.0%52.9%1100.0%52.9%
    NDP3,17126.6%00.0%-26.6%00.0%-26.6%
    Con2,95624.8%00.0%-24.8%00.0%-24.8%
    Grn1821.5%00.0%-1.5%00.0%-1.5%
    Total Number of MPs:11
    Gallagher Index:45.3945.39

    Topup Seats: (0)

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Nunavut

      Region: R_ON.Eastern

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib559,82647.2%850.0%2.8%947.4%0.1%
      Con420,10635.4%637.5%2.1%736.8%1.4%
      NDP159,95213.5%212.5%-1.0%315.8%2.3%
      Grn33,5912.8%00.0%-2.8%00.0%-2.8%
      Total Number of MPs:1619
      Gallagher Index: 3.26 2.80

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. Lib
      2. Con
      3. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Bay of Quinte, Carleton, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Kanata-Carleton, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Nepean, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Orléans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Vanier, Peterborough-Kawartha, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

      Region: R_ON.GTA

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib1,390,91149.2%2554.3%5.2%2749.1%-0.1%
      Con965,22734.1%1532.6%-1.5%1934.5%0.4%
      NDP394,44813.9%613.0%-0.9%814.5%0.6%
      Grn62,2372.2%00.0%-2.2%11.8%-0.4%
      Total Number of MPs:4655
      Gallagher Index: 4.18 0.63

      Topup Seats: (9)

      1. Con
      2. Con
      3. Lib
      4. Con
      5. NDP
      6. Grn
      7. Lib
      8. Con
      9. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Ajax, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Beaches-East York, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Humber River-Black Creek, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Oshawa, Parkdale-High Park, Pickering-Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Spadina-Fort York, Thornhill, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto-St. Paul's, University-Rosedale, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Whitby, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-Weston, York-Simcoe

      Region: R_ON.Northern

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib166,05442.9%562.5%19.6%555.6%12.7%
      NDP115,56029.8%337.5%7.7%333.3%3.5%
      Con89,46123.1%00.0%-23.1%111.1%-12.0%
      Grn15,4534.0%00.0%-4.0%00.0%-4.0%
      Total Number of MPs:89
      Gallagher Index:22.2912.90

      Topup Seats: (1)

      1. Con

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Kenora, Nickel Belt, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timmins-James Bay

      Region: R_ON.SouthCentral

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib438,16440.4%743.8%3.4%842.1%1.7%
      Con397,27836.6%637.5%0.9%736.8%0.2%
      NDP200,17918.4%318.8%0.3%315.8%-2.6%
      Grn39,0333.6%00.0%-3.6%15.3%1.7%
      Total Number of MPs:1619
      Gallagher Index: 3.58 2.57

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. Con
      2. Grn
      3. Lib

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Brantford-Brant, Burlington, Cambridge, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Kitchener-Conestoga, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, Oxford, St. Catharines, Waterloo, Wellington-Halton Hills

      Region: R_ON.Western

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Con421,32040.0%743.8%3.8%736.8%-3.1%
      Lib374,43635.5%637.5%2.0%736.8%1.3%
      NDP215,77620.5%318.8%-1.7%421.1%0.6%
      Grn35,6783.4%00.0%-3.4%15.3%1.9%
      Total Number of MPs:1619
      Gallagher Index: 4.05 2.78

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. NDP
      2. Lib
      3. Grn

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London North Centre, London West, London-Fanshawe, Oxford, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Perth-Wellington, Sarnia-Lambton, Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh

      Region: R_PEI

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib51,00258.3%266.7%8.4%250.0%-8.3%
      Con16,90019.3%133.3%14.0%125.0%5.7%
      NDP14,00616.0%00.0%-16.0%125.0%9.0%
      Grn5,2816.0%00.0%-6.0%00.0%-6.0%
      Total Number of MPs:34
      Gallagher Index:16.7210.45

      Topup Seats: (1)

      1. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Cardigan, Charlottetown, Egmont, Malpeque

      Region: R_QC.Eastern

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib394,94327.4%1043.5%16.0%1037.0%9.6%
      Con391,10127.2%417.4%-9.8%725.9%-1.3%
      NDP353,20224.5%626.1%1.5%622.2%-2.3%
      Bloc262,93618.3%313.0%-5.2%414.8%-3.5%
      Grn27,8631.9%00.0%-1.9%00.0%-1.9%
      Total Number of MPs:2327
      Gallagher Index:13.90 7.58

      Topup Seats: (4)

      1. Con
      2. Con
      3. Bloc
      4. Con

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, Beauce, Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix, Beauport-Limoilou, Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Berthier-Maskinongé, Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Compton-Stanstead, Drummond, Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jonquière, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Lévis-Lotbinière, Manicouagan, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Mégantic-L'Érable, Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Québec, Richmond-Arthabaska, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques, Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières

      Region: R_QC.MonCentral

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib654,12437.1%1346.4%9.3%1340.6%3.5%
      NDP467,15726.5%932.1%5.6%928.1%1.6%
      Bloc401,41222.8%517.9%-4.9%721.9%-0.9%
      Con183,05610.4%13.6%-6.8%39.4%-1.0%
      Grn44,8452.5%00.0%-2.5%00.0%-2.5%
      Total Number of MPs:2832
      Gallagher Index: 9.90 3.43

      Topup Seats: (4)

      1. Con
      2. Bloc
      3. Con
      4. Bloc

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Alfred-Pellan, Beloeil-Chambly, Bourassa, Brome-Missisquoi, Brossard-Saint-Lambert, Châteauguay-Lacolle, Hochelaga, Honoré-Mercier, Joliette, La Pointe-de-l'Île, La Prairie, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Laval-Les Îles, Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Montarville, Montcalm, Outremont, Papineau, Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, Repentigny, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint-Jean, Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, Salaberry-Suroît, Shefford, Terrebonne, Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Sœurs, Vimy

      Region: R_QC.MonWestL

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib466,60544.9%850.0%5.1%947.4%2.5%
      NDP255,00724.5%531.3%6.7%526.3%1.8%
      Bloc156,79615.1%212.5%-2.6%315.8%0.7%
      Con135,00713.0%16.3%-6.7%210.5%-2.5%
      Grn22,6872.2%00.0%-2.2%00.0%-2.2%
      Total Number of MPs:1619
      Gallagher Index: 8.00 3.21

      Topup Seats: (3)

      1. Con
      2. Bloc
      3. Lib

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Lac-Saint-Louis, Laurentides-Labelle, Mirabel, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Pontiac, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord, Saint-Laurent, Thérèse-De Blainville, Vaudreuil-Soulanges

      Region: R_SK

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Con267,93748.5%758.3%9.8%750.0%1.5%
      NDP138,57425.1%325.0%-0.1%428.6%3.5%
      Lib131,68123.9%216.7%-7.2%321.4%-2.4%
      Grn11,5272.1%00.0%-2.1%00.0%-2.1%
      Total Number of MPs:1214
      Gallagher Index: 8.72 3.49

      Topup Seats: (2)

      1. Lib
      2. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Battlefords-Lloydminster, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, Prince Albert, Regina-Lewvan, Regina-Qu'Appelle, Regina-Wascana, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville

      Region: R_YT

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib10,88753.7%1100.0%46.3%1100.0%46.3%
      Con4,92824.3%00.0%-24.3%00.0%-24.3%
      NDP3,94319.4%00.0%-19.4%00.0%-19.4%
      Grn5332.6%00.0%-2.6%00.0%-2.6%
      Total Number of MPs:11
      Gallagher Index:39.5139.51

      Topup Seats: (0)

        Constituent 2015 Ridings

        Yukon