Region Results for erre_mmp5050_ProvRegions-MMP_AV (2015 Data)

This page presents an analysis of each region -- the number of seats each party received in the region, the number they should have received, and various percentages.

The statistics are presented twice for models that have top-up seats in the region -- once that excludes the top-up seats and once including them. This enables us to see the effect of including the top-up seats in the model.

Models that do not include top-up seats (FPTP, AV, STV) only present the statistics once.

The FPTP and AV electoral models don't even have the concept of a region. In those cases the "regions" are the provinces.

R_AB R_BC R_MB R_NB R_NL R_NS R_NT R_NU R_ON R_PE R_QC R_SK R_YT

Region: R_AB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Con1,150,10159.6%1588.2%28.7%2058.8%-0.7%
Lib473,41624.5%211.8%-12.8%926.5%1.9%
NDP224,80011.6%00.0%-11.6%411.8%0.1%
Grn48,7422.5%00.0%-2.5%12.9%0.4%
Total Number of MPs:1734
Gallagher Index:23.74 1.67

Topup Seats: (17)

  1. Lib
  2. Lib
  3. Con
  4. Lib
  5. Con
  6. NDP
  7. Lib
  8. Con
  9. NDP
  10. Lib
  11. Con
  12. NDP
  13. Lib
  14. Con
  15. NDP
  16. Grn
  17. Lib

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Banff-Airdrie, Battle River-Crowfoot, Bow river, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Forest Lawn, Calgary Heritage, Calgary Midnapore, Calgary Nose Hill, Calgary Rocky Ridge, Calgary Shepard, Calgary Signal Hill, Calgary Skyview, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Mill Woods, Edmonton Riverbend, Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton West, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, Foothills, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Lakeland, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, Peace River-Westlock, Red Deer-Lacombe, Red Deer-Mountain View, Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, St. Albert-Edmonton, Sturgeon River-Parkland, Yellowhead

Region: R_BC

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib829,81635.1%1361.9%26.8%1535.7%0.6%
Con708,01029.9%29.5%-20.4%1331.0%1.0%
NDP615,15626.0%523.8%-2.2%1126.2%0.2%
Grn194,8478.2%14.8%-3.5%37.1%-1.1%
Total Number of MPs:2142
Gallagher Index:24.01 1.18

Topup Seats: (21)

  1. Con
  2. Con
  3. Con
  4. Con
  5. Con
  6. NDP
  7. Con
  8. NDP
  9. Con
  10. NDP
  11. Con
  12. NDP
  13. Con
  14. Grn
  15. NDP
  16. Lib
  17. Con
  18. Grn
  19. NDP
  20. Lib
  21. Con

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Abbotsford, Burnaby North-Seymour, Burnaby South, Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Chilliwack-Hope, Cloverdale-Langley City, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Courtenay-Alberni, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Delta, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kootenay-Columbia, Langley-Aldergrove, Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, New Westminster-Burnaby, North Island-Powell River, North Okanagan-Shuswap, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies, Richmond Centre, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan-West Kootenay, South Surrey-White Rock, Steveston-Richmond East, Surrey Centre, Surrey-Newton, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, Victoria, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Region: R_MB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib268,28044.7%571.4%26.8%642.9%-1.8%
Con224,52737.4%228.6%-8.8%535.7%-1.7%
NDP81,96013.6%00.0%-13.6%214.3%0.6%
Grn18,9443.2%00.0%-3.2%17.1%4.0%
Total Number of MPs:714
Gallagher Index:22.25 3.38

Topup Seats: (7)

  1. Con
  2. Con
  3. NDP
  4. Lib
  5. Con
  6. NDP
  7. Grn

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Brandon-Souris, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa, Elmwood-Transcona, Kildonan-St. Paul, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre

Region: R_NB

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib227,76451.6%5100.0%48.4%550.0%-1.6%
Con112,07025.4%00.0%-25.4%330.0%4.6%
NDP81,10518.4%00.0%-18.4%220.0%1.6%
Grn20,5514.7%00.0%-4.7%00.0%-4.7%
Total Number of MPs:510
Gallagher Index:40.92 4.91

Topup Seats: (5)

  1. Con
  2. NDP
  3. Con
  4. NDP
  5. Con

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Acadie-Bathurst, Beauséjour, Fredericton, Fundy Royal, Madawaska-Restigouche, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, New Brunswick Southwest, Saint John-Rothesay, Tobique-Mactaquac

Region: R_NL

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib165,41864.5%4100.0%35.5%571.4%6.9%
NDP54,12021.1%00.0%-21.1%114.3%-6.8%
Con26,46910.3%00.0%-10.3%114.3%4.0%
Ind7,5012.9%00.0%-2.9%00.0%-2.9%
Grn2,7721.1%00.0%-1.1%00.0%-1.1%
Total Number of MPs:47
Gallagher Index:30.19 7.75

Topup Seats: (3)

  1. NDP
  2. Con
  3. Lib

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Avalon, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Labrador, Long Range Mountains, St. John's East, St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Region: R_NS

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib324,81662.0%6100.0%38.0%763.6%1.6%
Con93,69717.9%00.0%-17.9%218.2%0.3%
NDP85,46816.3%00.0%-16.3%218.2%1.9%
Grn17,6303.4%00.0%-3.4%00.0%-3.4%
Total Number of MPs:611
Gallagher Index:31.93 2.96

Topup Seats: (5)

  1. Con
  2. NDP
  3. Con
  4. Lib
  5. NDP

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cape Breton-Canso, Central Nova, Cumberland-Colchester, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, South Shore-St. Margarets, Sydney-Victoria, West Nova

Region: R_NT

Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
Lib9,17248.3%1100.0%51.7%1100.0%51.7%
NDP5,78330.5%00.0%-30.5%00.0%-30.5%
Con3,48118.3%00.0%-18.3%00.0%-18.3%
Grn5372.8%00.0%-2.8%00.0%-2.8%
Total Number of MPs:11
Gallagher Index:44.4044.40

Topup Seats: (0)

    Constituent 2015 Ridings

    Northwest Territories

    Region: R_NU

    Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
    PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
    Lib5,61947.1%1100.0%52.9%1100.0%52.9%
    NDP3,17126.6%00.0%-26.6%00.0%-26.6%
    Con2,95624.8%00.0%-24.8%00.0%-24.8%
    Grn1821.5%00.0%-1.5%00.0%-1.5%
    Total Number of MPs:11
    Gallagher Index:45.3945.39

    Topup Seats: (0)

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Nunavut

      Region: R_ON

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib2,929,39344.8%5488.5%43.7%5444.6%-0.2%
      Con2,293,39335.1%46.6%-28.5%4335.5%0.5%
      NDP1,085,91616.6%34.9%-11.7%2016.5%-0.1%
      Grn185,9922.8%00.0%-2.8%43.3%0.5%
      Total Number of MPs:61121
      Gallagher Index:37.88 0.54

      Topup Seats: (60)

      1. Con
      2. Con
      3. Con
      4. Con
      5. Con
      6. Con
      7. Con
      8. Con
      9. Con
      10. Con
      11. Con
      12. Con
      13. Con
      14. Con
      15. Con
      16. Con
      17. Con
      18. Con
      19. Con
      20. Con
      21. Con
      22. Con
      23. NDP
      24. Con
      25. NDP
      26. Con
      27. NDP
      28. Con
      29. NDP
      30. Con
      31. NDP
      32. Con
      33. NDP
      34. Con
      35. NDP
      36. Con
      37. NDP
      38. Con
      39. NDP
      40. Con
      41. NDP
      42. Con
      43. NDP
      44. Con
      45. NDP
      46. Con
      47. NDP
      48. Con
      49. NDP
      50. Grn
      51. Con
      52. NDP
      53. Grn
      54. Con
      55. NDP
      56. Grn
      57. Con
      58. NDP
      59. Grn
      60. Con

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Ajax, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bay of Quinte, Beaches-East York, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Brantford-Brant, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Burlington, Cambridge, Carleton, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Eglinton-Lawrence, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Humber River-Black Creek, Huron-Bruce, Kanata-Carleton, Kenora, King-Vaughan, Kingston and the Islands, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Kitchener-Conestoga, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, London North Centre, London West, London-Fanshawe, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Nepean, Newmarket-Aurora, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, Nickel Belt, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Orléans, Oshawa, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Vanier, Oxford, Parkdale-High Park, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Perth-Wellington, Peterborough-Kawartha, Pickering-Uxbridge, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Richmond Hill, Sarnia-Lambton, Sault Ste. Marie, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Spadina-Fort York, St. Catharines, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Sudbury, Thornhill, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timmins-James Bay, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto-St. Paul's, University-Rosedale, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Waterloo, Wellington-Halton Hills, Whitby, Willowdale, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, York Centre, York South-Weston, York-Simcoe

      Region: R_PE

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib51,00258.3%2100.0%41.7%250.0%-8.3%
      Con16,90019.3%00.0%-19.3%125.0%5.7%
      NDP14,00616.0%00.0%-16.0%125.0%9.0%
      Grn5,2816.0%00.0%-6.0%00.0%-6.0%
      Total Number of MPs:24
      Gallagher Index:34.6810.45

      Topup Seats: (2)

      1. Con
      2. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Cardigan, Charlottetown, Egmont, Malpeque

      Region: R_QC

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib1,515,67335.7%2564.1%28.4%2835.9%0.2%
      NDP1,075,36625.4%1128.2%2.9%2025.6%0.3%
      Bloc821,14419.4%00.0%-19.4%1519.2%-0.1%
      Con709,16416.7%37.7%-9.0%1316.7%-0.1%
      Grn95,3952.2%00.0%-2.2%22.6%0.3%
      Total Number of MPs:3978
      Gallagher Index:25.24 0.42

      Topup Seats: (39)

      1. Bloc
      2. Bloc
      3. Bloc
      4. Bloc
      5. Bloc
      6. Bloc
      7. Con
      8. Bloc
      9. Con
      10. NDP
      11. Bloc
      12. Con
      13. NDP
      14. Bloc
      15. Con
      16. NDP
      17. Bloc
      18. Con
      19. NDP
      20. Bloc
      21. Con
      22. NDP
      23. Bloc
      24. Con
      25. NDP
      26. Bloc
      27. Con
      28. Lib
      29. NDP
      30. Bloc
      31. Con
      32. Lib
      33. NDP
      34. Grn
      35. Bloc
      36. Con
      37. Lib
      38. NDP
      39. Grn

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Alfred-Pellan, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, Beauce, Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix, Beauport-Limoilou, Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Beloeil-Chambly, Berthier-Maskinongé, Bourassa, Brome-Missisquoi, Brossard-Saint-Lambert, Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Châteauguay-Lacolle, Compton-Stanstead, Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, Drummond, Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Gatineau, Hochelaga, Honoré-Mercier, Hull-Aylmer, Joliette, Jonquière, La Pointe-de-l'Île, La Prairie, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Lac-Saint-Jean, Lac-Saint-Louis, Laurentides-Labelle, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Laval-Les Îles, Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Lévis-Lotbinière, Manicouagan, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Mirabel, Montarville, Montcalm, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Mount Royal, Mégantic-L'Érable, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Outremont, Papineau, Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Pontiac, Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Québec, Repentigny, Richmond-Arthabaska, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint-Jean, Saint-Laurent, Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Salaberry-Suroît, Shefford, Sherbrooke, Terrebonne, Thérèse-De Blainville, Trois-Rivières, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Sœurs, Vimy

      Region: R_SK

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Con267,93748.5%685.7%37.2%750.0%1.5%
      NDP138,57425.1%00.0%-25.1%428.6%3.5%
      Lib131,68123.9%114.3%-9.6%321.4%-2.4%
      Grn11,5272.1%00.0%-2.1%00.0%-2.1%
      Total Number of MPs:714
      Gallagher Index:32.46 3.49

      Topup Seats: (7)

      1. NDP
      2. NDP
      3. Lib
      4. NDP
      5. Lib
      6. Con
      7. NDP

      Constituent 2015 Ridings

      Battlefords-Lloydminster, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, Prince Albert, Regina-Lewvan, Regina-Qu'Appelle, Regina-Wascana, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville

      Region: R_YT

      Ridings OnlyRidings + Top-up
      PartyPopular VotesPct VotesElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver RepElected MPsPct Elected MPsOver Rep
      Lib10,88753.7%1100.0%46.3%1100.0%46.3%
      Con4,92824.3%00.0%-24.3%00.0%-24.3%
      NDP3,94319.4%00.0%-19.4%00.0%-19.4%
      Grn5332.6%00.0%-2.6%00.0%-2.6%
      Total Number of MPs:11
      Gallagher Index:39.5139.51

      Topup Seats: (0)

        Constituent 2015 Ridings

        Yukon